Spring training got underway a few weeks ago and the Cardinals were a serious threat to win the NL Central division title. Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia struck out seven over six sparkling innings in his best start of the spring. He gave up one run and three hits, but with the contract situation of Albert Pujols hanging around, and a few injuries (elbow) to RHP Adam Wainwright (who will be lost for the season), it is difficult to see the Cardinals posing a serious threat to the Brewers and Reds. I will give you a rundown of what to expect out of the Cardinals this year.
Here’s a Look at The offense:
Catcher: Yadier Molina
Infield: Albert Pujols (1B), Skip Schumaker (2B), Ryan Theriot (SS) and David Freese (3B)
Outfield: Matt Holliday (LF), Colby Rasmus (CF) and Lance Berkman (RF)
The Cardinals will field a lineup similar to the one that finished in second place in the Central division last year. The offense finished sixth in the league in runs per game and will likely be as good this year.
Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus will lead the offense. The Pujols contract impasse will be a distraction, no matter what everyone professes. If he is worth 30 million a year for ten years, that would be amazing. A lot of people don’t think he has it in him. It will be interesting to see how his impending free agency affects the player who has been a great offensive force in the game over the last several years. Rasmus will attempt to build on his 2010 production, just as he improved on his rookie season with a nice sophomore campaign last year.
Beyond those three players, the lineup is considerably average. Ryan Theriot goes in for Brendan Ryan at shortstop, while Lance Berkman was signed this winter and will take over for Ryan Ludwick in right field. These changes should come out in the wash with Theriot being an offensive upgrade at shortstop and Berkman being somewhat of a downgrade in right field. The team will be worse defensively with the departure of Ryan, thought by many to be the game’s best-fielding shortstop and the arrival of Berkman, who has balky knees and hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007.
As for Berkman, some think he is showing his age. He will almost certainly have trouble staying on the field due to the additional physical demands. If he manages to stay in the lineup, the daily grind will impact his already diminished offense (.248/14/58 in 404 AB last year).
The pitching staff:
Rotation: Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse and KyleMcClellan
Closer: Ryan Franklin
The rotation should have been the strength of the ball club, but the injury to Adam Wainwright is going to have effects on the Cardinals’ title aspirations. Carpenter had another outstanding campaign last year and is 33-13, with a 2.78 ERA, over the last two seasons.
Jake Westbrook will be in the rotation behind Carpenter. He missed most of 2008 and all of 2009 after an elbow injury and surgery in the summer of 2008. It remains to be seen whether he can remain in playing condition.
Jaime Garcia went 13-8, 2.70 last year and finished third in the Rookie of the Year balloting, but he is unproven. The question arises whether he will be able to build on last season’s performance without initially having to take a step backwards.
Right handed pitcher, Kyle Lohse, struggled last year. He underwent surgery (forearm) in June to correct the problem, but the corrective procedure produced even worse results. The Cardinals hope he is healthy and can return to the form he had in 2008.
McClellan will likely replace Wainwright in the rotation. He threw 75 innings in relief last year. Despite a disappointing 1-4 record, he posted an impressive 2.27 ERA, a 1.075 WHIP and a 2.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Franklin has become a consistent performer at closer, compiling 82 saves over the last three seasons. With the departure of McClellan to the rotation, greater responsibility will fall on hard-throwing Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs.
Here’s My Prediction for 2011: 3rd place (82-80)
They have to overcome some contract hurdles and adjust to some new players. It would take best years from several players for this team to have a shot at the division title. As it is, they barely beat the Cubs for third place in the division, and I would not be surprised if they end up with only 74 or 75 wins.
We are excited! Opening Day was March 31. The Cards didn’t perform “so hot” against the Padres in the first two games, but the third game is today. We’ll see how they can pick up the pace at 1:15 pm CST.
Patrick McIntosh blogs about Sports fitness especially Soccer and Skiing at
http://www.patrickmcintosh.com
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